SureBetPro arbitrage trading software by RiskFreeProfit
Trend followers lose more often than they gain
__Marc Potters and Jean-Philippe Bouchaud (Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management) write:__
~~purple:A question often asked by investors to fund managers, besides the average return of their strategies, is: ?What is your fraction of winning trades?? Implicitly, they expect the answer to be larger than 50% , as this would indicate that the fund manager is more frequently right than wrong, and therefore trustworthy. We want to show in this paper that this fraction is in fact meaningless. It depends entirely on the trading style of the manager, and tells very little about the consistency of his returns...~~
__Abstract__
We solve exactly a simple model of trend following strategy, and obtain the analytical shape of the profit per trade distribution. This distribution is non trivial and has an option like, asymmetric structure. The degree of asymmetry depends continuously on the parameters of the strategy and on the volatility of the traded asset. While the average gain per trade is always exactly zero, the fraction f of winning trades decreases from f=1/2 for small volatility to f=0 for high volatility, showing that this winning probability does not give any information on the reliability of the strategy but is indicative of the trading style.
You can get the paper from arXiv as a PDF [http://xxx.lanl.gov/PS_cache/physics/pdf/0508/0508104.pdf|here] or in other formats [http://www.unifr.ch/econophysics/PHP/formulaire/redirect.php?year=2006&code=physics/0508104&version=abs|via Econophysics Forum] who have just produced their latest [http://moneyscience.org/tiki/tiki-view_forum_thread.php?forumId=16&comments_parentId=1912|selection of papers].
{content id=37}
{content id=35}
Read the whole article here ...
7 Steps You Should Take To Be Successful At Sports Betting www.sports-arbitrage-trading-software.info
Online Sports Betting Gambling Market www.sports-arbitrage-trading-software.info
Canadian Home Based Business black-biz-net.com
Small Home Based Business Opportunity black-biz-net.com
Home Based Business Book black-biz-net.com
Make Money From Home Uk black-biz-net.com
Home Make Money Online Working black-biz-net.com
Making Money Through The Internet black-biz-net.com
Make Money Through The Internet black-biz-net.com
Ways To Make Money On Runescape black-biz-net.com
Ways For Teen To Make Money black-biz-net.com
Home Based Business Tax black-biz-net.com
Make Money Online Teenager Ways black-biz-net.com
Best Money Making Idea black-biz-net.com
105 Home Make Money Ways black-biz-net.com
0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180 195 210 225 240 255 270 285
*Warning! At this moment I cannot, and will not, recommend RiskFreeProfit as they
are stuck with problems due to the new regulations by US government. At this point
what I DO recommend is for You to take a look at John Morrison's betting system,
go and have a look here: Sports Betting System
Isn't the info about Trend followers lose more often than they gain
what you were looking for?
Try a google search:
|
